Espionage - Round Nine - The Spy escapes

[dumytru]

Isn't is simply 4 out of 7 people?
List is 6 long and 2 people are fixed (detective+informant), so 4 variable slots. And at that time it was 7 people that could put into those slots (not counting yourself, since I think you can't appear on your own list, and not counting Jecka as the informant).
I might have used the wrong formula tho XD

Spoiler: Math stuff

There are 13 players in game. Lists are 6 players each; the detective and the informant take 2 slots, so there remain 4 slots.
If you eliminate the detective, the informant and the owner of the list, there are 10 players left who can fill those 4 slots.

The total possible number of lists at this point is a 4-combination of 10, which is 210.

We need to calculate the probability that at least to civilians have the same list (two out of 10 civilians).

This is where it gets complicated (and I'm not 100% sure of my logic), but a *aproximatte* formula is (1 + 2 + ... + 9) / 210.

Let's use this notation for event = a generation of a list in the context described above.

If we have only one event, we'll generate one list => the condition isn't met (we would need at least two lists).
For two events: we shall consider the first civilian will receive any list, and the condition is met if the second civilian receives the same list, so the probability in this case is 1/210.
For three events: the above case plus the probability that the third civilian receives same list as either the second or the first civilian, therefore 1/210 + 2/210.
...
For ten events: 1/210 + 2/210 + .. + 9/210 = (1 + 2 + ... + 9) / 210.

There's a small flaw in this logic though. If you take the three-events case, the probability for the third civilian to have either the second or the first civilian list isn't 2/210 <- it's a little smaller than that (if 2nd and 1st civilian have the same list already).

The easy solution I found was to use a binomial probability calculator (http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx). The probability computed in both ways was pretty close (~0.1% difference).

Sorry if I don't make any sense.

*will stop saying stuff that might be relevant to the game now*

[Nemomon]

the game will end tomorrow, Dumytru. Personally I don't mind at all that You're talking in this topic .

And btw, it turned out that Moonie was a civilian.

[Kamite]

Can we lynch bash now?

[Nemomon]

Yes, although this round I probably will vote SA, unless You Kamite has a reason of why You think Bash is the Spy.

[bash7353]

I actually don't think 10221 is the Spy, and after looking a bit at the numbers, it turns out that it's actually not that unlikely for Memesu and Nemomon to have the same list. Which is why I continue to have Kleene on my suspect list, and I'm adding Yuri now.

Did you guys notice Jecka's vote? Do you think it has significance?

[Nemomon]

I don't think it has. Maybe Jecka voted for me because I kissed her (jk).

The Spy didn't kill anybody this round to make sure we will have one more suspect to take into consideration. For this reason I also doubt that the Spy has sent an order to Jecka. But considering that Jecka was inactive for most part of the game, I doubt that she actually would comply with the Order. Since the Informants know who's the Spy from the start of the game, if I were the Spy, I wouldn't order her to vote for me, but (if anything) to vote for someone else or join a bandwagon.

Anyway, sleepeh time for me.

[bash7353]

Does no one think the vote actually makes Nemomon look more suspicious?

[Jecka]

I don't think it has. Maybe Jecka voted for me because I kissed her (jk).

This was definitely the reason. Rude.

Nah I changed it to someone random last second in case Moon wasn't the spy, not that one vote would have mattered.
Either way I didn't just want to skip again :V

[Iwamoto Yuri]

And I'm now suspicious why? Because I refused to jump on the bandwagon? I simply didn't think moon was the spy, so I didn't want to vote her.

Also, I have no idea who is, and thought Kamite could be the informant based on his fishy remark... Besides, I have work too. Most phases I was working till five, got home at six, one day I was at sports and two days I napped through phase change. I haven't had much time to see what was going on in general.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

I need to sllep ._.

I'll go straight to the point and say that gut feeling wants me to vote bash right now.

EIGHT PLAYERS REMAINING

Six Civilians. One Spy. One Informant.

Indeed, it was suspicious that Jecka voted for Nemomon. But why? Would Nemomon really order his Informant to vote for him? We all know that Jecka and the SPY didn't have any or wasn't really able to communicate at all until lists started to be revealed.

If we're basing our evidences from the lists, however, I realized bash could still be able to fake a list despite being the first one to post his. Nine players remained at the time so he only had to choose three people not to include on his list, and is probably not the Informant.

What happened to your suspicions on Kleene, bash?

[Kleene Onigiri]

@dumy: ah, I did a blunter and was using the "now" to calculate :V You're right!


Edit: is it just me or are those "I'm not suspicious because I have a live and was doing stuff and didn't look at the game" kind of annoying? That was being said like every phase now.


Edit2: why am I suspicious to you, bash?

[Nemomon]

For now I voted for Yuri. No reason.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

Sorry for having a life :T

You're totally holding it against me I voted for you right nemo . Guess I'll just vote for myself then.

[Memesu]

Well, I was suspicious of Nemomon before I saw Jecka voting him. Now I'm not sure who it could be. Other than "probably not Yuri" because I agree with the points SA (and Stop) made about her behavior earlier.

[Nemomon]

Sorry for having a life :T

You're totally holding it against me I voted for you right nemo . Guess I'll just vote for myself then.

Nah, not really. SA also voted for me, and I didn't revenge vote him. I voted for You because almost everyone was suspected at a some point of the game, but You managed to avoid suspicion.