ESPIONAGE: Round Four (Spy & Informants Win!!)

[Stopwatch]

Sorry for the triple-post, I just thought of something.

What if people post a "fake investigate" every day. This would allow the detective to chip in with a real investigate if they want without compromising themselves. Now, the civillians would be able to disregard all investigates posted by people not on their lists. The spy and informants wouldn't . As such, the civillians will be getting a lot more usable info from that.

I won't start with that play before consulting you, though, because as good as it sounds there are some risks:
- activity: Ideally, we'd want everyone to post fake results. Nonparticipation could allow the spy to try to infer who is/isn't the detective based on activity. This isn't going to be too easy, though, as the detective can also choose whether to post anything or not. I'll post a better analysis on this later.
- If someone claims the spy came out clean, then the spy could infer that person's not the detective.

So, it's a way to get info, but also risks giving the spy some info. What do you think?

I say something like this pretty much every round. No one ever seems to do it though >_<.

[Fujiwara]

Okay, I think we’ve all agreed that the tie-vote was a one-off thing, so now we’ll have to vote someone out. The question is only: Who?

I agree with Togop that at this point we can’t really tell whether the non-kill was a strategy or due to non-activity, so let’s set that aside for now.

First off, there’s the option off voting out the inactive players. As you may know from previous rounds, I think that’s a good option in lieu of real suspicions. However, I don’t think it’s good form to vote out someone’s who’s not only a new player, but also new to the forums here, solely because of that. I think we can be a bit more newbie-friendly than that.
This is not, however, meant to be a carte blanche for new players. Consider it a friendly warning: because of the nature of this game, quiet people are not really an asset for the civilian side, so they’re more likely to be voted out. If you don’t want to be voted out, come join the discussion! Starting tomorrow, I, for one, will retract my protection. That should give everyone enough time to take a more active role. I can promise you that the game is much more fun if you participate actively anyway.

So, back to the lynching matter of who to vote for. It’s true that it’s still a bit early for concrete leads, but I still think we can get somewhere if we follow up on those suspicions.

Here’s the impression I got yesterday: That a spy/informant might very well have tried to establish his Civilian-ness through the tie vote, since the last round showed that establishing your innocence thus puts you in a very good position indeed. As such, the people who have tried their hardest to appear Civilian-y may very well be on the spy side. That makes Jd- a suspect in my eyes.

There’s also the matter of Jd-’s cryptic posts that he 'may have found something out' and that he didn’t want to tell us why he went with the tie, as well as the fact that he immediately established that it would be a volunteer-based tie, without reacting to any arguments to the contrary, like mine. I can’t help but become suspicious of these things.

I think that Jd- can be a valuable player on the Civilian side, but I don’t think that fact should give him a Get Out of Jail Free card, because that just makes his job too easy when he’s on the spy side. What I regretted the most last round was that I didn’t voice my slight suspicions of Jd- before I died, exactly because I didn’t want to lose a valuable player like him if he turned out to be innocent.

As such, my vote today will be for Jd-, unless someone gives me a good reason not to vote for him. Feel free to join me if you think Jd- is suspicious, or follow your own suspicions …

[Jd-]

All righty! So, it looks like now is a good time to go through with this post while there's still time to inform all relevant parties.

Foremost, I have a feeling that at least one of the following is one of the Informants, or less likely but still very possible, the Spy: Fujiwara, Togop, Stopwatch.

Earlier in the game, I mentioned I had something in mind that could give the Spy a big advantage and that was why I wouldn't mention it until I was sure. This was actually a bit of misdirection to ensure the Spy/Informants wouldn't avoid saying anything but they and other players would still know I had something in mind. There are two other more obvious reasons why I didn't say anything, but those have to be left to the imagination. Most importantly, though: This was to actually give an opportunity for the Detective to gain an advantage--hopefully.

Before we get into that: The reason I've brought up both sides of the "inactivity vs. deliberate strategy" at two different points this time was actually to see who would have done what I would do in their shoes. As such, I decided to mention I was on both sides of the argument at two different points, to see what responses would come as a result (first by mentioning "As for the return of the no-kill, I am leaning toward genuine inactivity this time, which limits our suspects considerably," and then, "I'm willing to say that the Spy almost definitely was active last phase"). I wanted to see what people would say, specifically, when faced with both options at different times. It is the job of the Informant to muddle the waters, and if they are an active, hands-on type of player like me, I figured that would be a good starting point for the idea I had yesterday.

--Interrupted! I just got RM'd by Fujiwara but am posting this ahead of time in two parts so that it doesn't seem like it was a response to that post.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

Yuri - Possibly volunteered to seem civillian, knowing we're unlikely to use her nomination

Well, it was my idea :V... and I honestly hadn't seen that desune had volunteered, so ^^'.
I didn't really want people to have to sacrifice themselves when it was my idea in the first place.

[Jd-]

Continuing from here!

General Suspicions

As mentioned at the head of the now-previous post, Fujiwara is one of my lead suspects for being an Informant. I feel like this is one of the Informants for sure, but it will be up to everyone else to find out if you agree with me or not. Analyze what I've said so far and analyze what Fujiwara has said so far, with all of the information contained in this post (as well as the one by Fujiwara) and come to a decision. One of us nominated themselves for the vote yesterday when they could have stayed silent or simply went with the crowd that was already denouncing it as a bad idea. Yet, I went ahead with it and nominated myself and put myself on the line to give us a chance at coordination.

I think it would be very strange and almost impossible for Stopwatch and Yuri Iwamoto to both be evil. Either they are both civilians (still very possible, of course) or one or the other is the Spy or an Informant. The reasoning for this is they spent a fair amount of time debating amongst each other with differing strategies, and I really do not believe they would have done this if one were the Spy and the other were the Informant--the Informant would never go after the Spy publicly like that, as it puts them in a precarious position. The Spy may not have known the Informants' identities yet (I believe they do, though, but we'll get back to that), that is indeed possible, but I also don't believe the Spy would have put themselves in that position to begin with--especially because some of those ideas could have revealed the Detective inadvertently, which Stowpatch (for example) would have recognized and let slide instead of combating. The Informants receive the same Order and would recognize each other from the fact that one responded to one cue and the other another, so they'd have no reason to debate each other in that manner. No one other than me would be making this point, so I find that being a deliberate exchange spanning a whole phase to be really unlikely. As such, I would see these two as either civilians at odds or being one Informant/Spy trying to blend in and the other a civilian.

I really want to believe that Togop is a civilian, but... I'm not ready to commit to either side yet. I am much more convinced about Fujiwara's status than Togop's, to say the very least.

I don't have strong feelings about any other player as being on either side currently. If anything comes to mind, I'll make a follow-up post. For now...

The Case for Jd- as Civilian and Very-Very-Very Unlikely the Spy

At the very least, you can pretty thoroughly discount me from being the Spy, as while it is possible an Informant would volunteer themselves on Day 1 for the tie initiative (even though it is incredibly risky), it would really be very, very difficult to justify that sort of decision as the Spy. The results of such a maneuver are out of your hands once it gets set in motion, which is why I was hesitant to do it even as a civilian. As the Spy, though, where your survival is the only thing keeping the game going for your side? I don't see it happening too often. On top of this, I made an effort today to root out at least one of the Informants by seeing who would snatch up the bait on the "inactivity vs. deliberate strategy" posts and, more importantly, exactly how they would do so. No one else employed any strategy like this despite it being only in the civilians' interests to nudge the other side, since the civilians have nothing to reveal and no one to protect on this subject. It may have worked, it may not have, but at the very least I tried and the evidence is clear.

Voting Recommendation

It's nothing definitive, but my feeling based on what's happened so far is that Fujiwara is likely one of the two informants. My vote, barring any last-minute information, is for Fujiwara. This is a very dangerous enemy for the civilians to leave on the table. I will take all responsibility should this vote see a civilian arrested, but I am reasonably sure that we are talking about an Informant here. If Fujiwara is indeed a civilian, it will be a very unfortunate and impacting loss, though I'm not really afraid of that possibility right now. I could very well be wrong. However, Fujiwara is obviously a strong player, and if we just leave strong players on the other side in the game because we're not 100% sure in a game where it's not really possible to be 100% sure, we have very little chance at winning this.

If I am right and Fujiwara is an Informant: We will make the Detective's job much, much, much easier going forward. There are still a lot of players left, but if we can eliminate just one Informant now, that means there will be only ONE other player on the other side that will come up as a "not-Spy". We can use this in coordination with the Detective to give us a big advantage in the end game, but only if we eliminate one of them very soon. Otherwise, it's going to be too hard to help guide the Detective's investigates as no player can be included more than twice. Right now, the "not-Spy" results won't mean very much, but if an Informant is taken out, I really, really like our chances.

Message to the Detective

We will have to rely on you to win this in the end. It'll always be up to you to make the judgment calls on exactly who to Investigate, vote for, etc. Yesterday, I volunteered to be voted for even though it was at considerable risk. It's up to you to decide if I did so as a civilian or if I did so as an informant (because as explained above, I'm virtually certainly not the Spy). Judging from my list and remaining possibilities (hint) and my eliminations so far, I have some concrete possibilities on who you are.

My CURRENT recommendation: Investigate Stopwatch, Yuri Iwamoto, and Fujiwara, assuming Fujiwara isn't about to be arrested. I don't know who you investigated yesterday, but so long as you haven't investigated those three and you haven't gotten a "No-Spy" on them, there's still plenty of room. If you believe me possible to still be the Spy, please include me as well! Any phase, whether it's now or next phase or the phases to come. I am not the Spy. I'm also not an Informant, but you'll only have to take my actions as evidence of that. Now, if Fujiwara is about to definitely be arrested, you should change this to someone you would like to get a read on.

I also have a hint you may not have caught onto: Your Investigate action comes before everything else. This means that if you Investigate someone that is sure to be arrested/killed/etc, it won't matter for the purposes of Investigate. If you send in Player A, Player B, and Player C in a phase when Player A dies, Player B is arrested, and Player C survives, you may still get "Player A is NOT the Spy!" as a result because your Investigate has no bearing on what happens in the phase that it takes place on. As such, you may want to keep this in mind and avoid investigating people you think are definitely going to be arrested--it won't do any good.

But, keep in mind: The Informants will come up as NOT the Spy and will appear just like a civilian. I recommend investigating the above parties--getting a "Not Spy" result on a likely Informant will help you narrow things down later on. Nothing with the Investigate ability is going to be an instant-win, but over time, it can really build up.

[Stopwatch]

You haven't said *why* Fujiwara is supposedly an Informant. A "feeling" on its own shouldn't count and, if Town, Fujiwara could be a very useful player. However, someone (I have no idea outside of pressuring lurkers) needs to come up with a better suspect because as it is, most people are likely to go random or for Fujiwara due to your post.

[bash7353]

Oh, this thread has become an interesting read now. Finally, people are really talking, and I guess the fact that we have a couple suspects already is a good thing. For now I'll give you the short version of what I'm thinking: As far as Jd- being suspicious is concerned, I'm not sure if I agree with that. Most of Jd-'s posts have felt very Jd- to me. I don't think it's unusual that he's being cryptic and that he doesn't really let on what he's really thinking. So I don't think I'll be voting Jd-.

I would prefer, though, if he would make his thought process a bit more clear. So, I don't think I'll be voting him today, but I can be reasoned with. That being said, I don't think there's any evidence to suggest that Fuji is evil either. It looks to me like one of those two is gonna be arrested today, and if that's how it's gonna play out, I'll probably vote someone completely different because at this point I believe them both to be innocent.

[Fujiwara]

As mentioned at the head of the now-previous post, Fujiwara is one of my lead suspects for being an Informant.

Of course I am, after all I just cast supicion on you.
I’m still not sure what you base this argument on, since your post seems a bit confusing. You write a lot, but you don’t actually come out and say why I should be an informant.

Unfortunately I don’t have a lot of time, since I have a train to catch, so here’s the most important point I’ll make today (just in case I don’t manage to come online again before the phase ends):
If you arrest me and find out I am Civilian, do me a favor and vote out Jd- next!

Another important point:

The Informants receive the same Order and would recognize each other from the fact that one responded to one cue and the other another, so they'd have no reason to debate each other in that manner.

This is just wrong. And since you are the person who wrote the rules, I find it highly unlikely that you forgot about the fact that informants can receive different orders:
From the rules:

NOTE: Depending on the size of a game, additional Informants may be added prior to the start of the game at the GM's discretion. Any such additions will be announced in the topic prior to the game beginning. Should this be the case, the Spy may then send Orders to "Informants #1" and "Informants #2" separately.

Thus your argument on the subject of Yuri and Stopwatch makes no sense. Just thought I should point that out.

I’d love to write more, but it’s really very unfortunate that I seriously don’t have more time right now. Your post doesn’t make you any less suspicious in my eyes though, quite the contrary. I hope people won’t just follow you blindly, but please consider the implications of all Jd- said so far once you find out I’m innocent if you decide to vote for me.

[Jd-]

In summary of all I have said: Vote for Fujiwara

If I'm wrong, I will not protest in the slightest amount if you want to arrest me tomorrow. There are only three realistic possibilities here: I'm a civilian and Fujiwara is an Informant, I'm an Informant and Fujiwara is a civilian, or we're both civilians. We both aren't evil. We're both capable players and, if we were both on the evil side, there is no way I would sacrifice such a strong partner for any sort of advantage (especially this early in the game). Also, we just accused each other, which makes it even more likely

I am personally taking responsibility and will not protest whatsoever on being arrested tomorrow if I am wrong about Fujiwara being on the evil side today. Quote this post fifty times over tomorrow if I make a single recommendation to the contrary; I want to be arrested tomorrow if I'm wrong about this and you think I deserve it.

---

Yuri - Possibly volunteered to seem civillian, knowing we're unlikely to use her nomination

Well, it was my idea :V... and I honestly hadn't seen that desune had volunteered, so ^^'.
I didn't really want people to have to sacrifice themselves when it was my idea in the first place.

As I said in the other post, I think you're a civilian and am not really conflicted about it. We can ally if you'd like (assuming you believe me to also be a civilian).

Here’s the impression I got yesterday: That a spy/informant might very well have tried to establish his Civilian-ness through the tie vote, since the last round showed that establishing your innocence thus puts you in a very good position indeed. As such, the people who have tried their hardest to appear Civilian-y may very well be on the spy side. That makes Jd- a suspect in my eyes.

There’s also the matter of Jd-’s cryptic posts that he 'may have found something out' and that he didn’t want to tell us why he went with the tie, as well as the fact that he immediately established that it would be a volunteer-based tie, without reacting to any arguments to the contrary, like mine. I can’t help but become suspicious of these things.

I think that Jd- can be a valuable player on the Civilian side, but I don’t think that fact should give him a Get Out of Jail Free card, because that just makes his job too easy when he’s on the spy side. What I regretted the most last round was that I didn’t voice my slight suspicions of Jd- before I died, exactly because I didn’t want to lose a valuable player like him if he turned out to be innocent.

As such, my vote today will be for Jd-, unless someone gives me a good reason not to vote for him. Feel free to join me if you think Jd- is suspicious, or follow your own suspicions …

Just to be clear: My post implicating Fujiwara came at the same time, which is quite an interesting coincidence and one I'm sure we'll discuss a lot at the end of this round. But, back on track here:

Fujiwara isn't actually wrong that someone on the evil side would try to asser their status as a civilian through the tie initiative. However, my impression from back then was that, like Breva/Kamite did last round and like KL/myself did last round (Spies and Informants, repsectively), the Informants would jump at the opportunity to appear to be a team-player and cooperative civilian by going along with the vote when there was no danger involved for them or their side. Where we differ is that I am very skeptical the Spy, especially, would ever nominate themselves for such a dangerous proposition, but also do not think the Informants would do so because the Informants can gain a great deal just from going along with it and hoping someone else messes it up--which is exactly what happened.

My cryptic posts, now partially explained in the previous two posts, were a ploy to get the attention of all sides and ensure I could bring it back up later. I mentioned that it could be of an advantage to the Spy team because I first of all did not want them to hold back on saying anything yet I did not want people to think we were directionless. There are two other obvious reasons that I won't detail, which I believe the Detective may recognize very shortly.

For anyone still confused, my intention with this strategy was: "Find the Jd- (Informant) of last round". I mentioned before, with honesty, that I felt the Informants were active and I believed they were. What I wanted to see is just what kind of players were on their side, and I am pretty certain that we found the "Jd- (Informant) of last round" through that experiment.

Fujiwara openly has asked for others to join in a vote for me, which is of course a smart move because if I am arrested as a civilian, there won't be that much suspicion cast backward: everyone else is at equal fault for arresting a civilian and Fujiwara can just apologize afterward and proceed with one less vocal civilian in the game. As you'll see above, I'm willing to put myself up as the next arrest target with no qualms whatsoever if I'm wrong that Fujiwara is an Informant--and I may be; I'm not selling certainty here, but I am saying that if I'm wrong, you can thoroughly blame me.

---

You haven't said *why* Fujiwara is supposedly an Informant. A "feeling" on its own shouldn't count and, if Town, Fujiwara could be a very useful player. However, someone (I have no idea outside of pressuring lurkers) needs to come up with a better suspect because as it is, most people are likely to go random or for Fujiwara due to your post.

I want to see who will come to Fujiwara's defense and what they will say; we all agree this is a valuable player we're talking about, for whichever side, but that also immediately raised the question: How valuable, exactly? Valuable enough to stick their necks out? We'll see about that part. You know how I tend to play, and showing all of my cards too early is never something I'm very prone to do. Again, I may end up being wrong, but I think it did work.

---

A further post will come in just a few minutes, to address the latest posts.

[Jd-]

Another important point:

The Informants receive the same Order and would recognize each other from the fact that one responded to one cue and the other another, so they'd have no reason to debate each other in that manner.

This is just wrong. And since you are the person who wrote the rules, I find it highly unlikely that you forgot about the fact that informants can receive different orders:
From the rules:

NOTE: Depending on the size of a game, additional Informants may be added prior to the start of the game at the GM's discretion. Any such additions will be announced in the topic prior to the game beginning. Should this be the case, the Spy may then send Orders to "Informants #1" and "Informants #2" separately.

Thus your argument on the subject of Yuri and Stopwatch makes no sense. Just thought I should point that out.

I’d love to write more, but it’s really very unfortunate that I seriously don’t have more time right now. Your post doesn’t make you any less suspicious in my eyes though, quite the contrary. I hope people won’t just follow you blindly, but please consider the implications of all Jd- said so far once you find out I’m innocent if you decide to vote for me.

We'll update that after this game to avoid any possible confusion (I guess we missed that one since it was in a part unrelated to the actual Orders ruling), but I can say with utmost certainty that the way the Orders are delivered is designed to be like this:

Spy sends order: "Informant 1, show me who you are by raising your hand in the topic. Informant 2, show me who you are by hugging someone in the topic." The GM then sends an identical PM to both Informant players that says: "Your Orders for today are: 'Informant 1, show me who you are by raising your hand in the topic. Informant 2, show me who you are by hugging someone in the topic.'"

From the template (which is available in the main rules topic as well as this one prior to the game starting):

The Informants will all begin the game knowing your identity, but you may use your Orders system in order to ask them to identify themselves in public with coded tasks (such as, "Informant 1, show me who you are by mentioning a hug in the topic, while Informant 2, I'd like you to show me who you are by mentioning a high-five in the topic"). A single message to all Informants is not encouraged, so it is better to specifically organize an Order for each Informant.

The reason it's like this is because it is on the Informants to decide which number Informant they are and prevent the Spy from only sending one that says, "Tell Fujiwara to _______" and "Tell Conan-chandesune to ________". The point of the rule there is that the Spy will send one order that is sent to both Informants and they can self-coordinate indirectly in the topic, but not in PM. It adds the unlikely wrinkle that the Spy may misinterpret something a civilian said and mistake them as an Informant, which I think we can all agree is a really entertaining prospect.

However, yes, I concur that it--assuming some sort of confusion--is possible that Stopwatch and Yuri wouldn't know each other if they were both evil (I don't think they are). If Fujiwara does turn out to be an Informant, though, I think it'll give us some insight into what's happened on their side so far.

If you arrest me and find out I am Civilian, do me a favor and vote out Jd- next!

I'm totally OK with this. It was my mention of Fujiwara that casts the suspicion and potential subsequent arrest and I am willing to take all responsibility if I am indeed wrong. Again, a definite possibility, but I don't want to pass up a good hunch and leave a strong opponent in the game when we have the chance to remove an Informant (and a strong one at that).

If Fujiwara is a civilian and is arrested, arrest me next, and I'll also be confirmed a civilian. At that point, you can take the sum of our posts and hopefully gain some useful information.

Oh, this thread has become an interesting read now. Finally, people are really talking, and I guess the fact that we have a couple suspects already is a good thing. For now I'll give you the short version of what I'm thinking: As far as Jd- being suspicious is concerned, I'm not sure if I agree with that. Most of Jd-'s posts have felt very Jd- to me. I don't think it's unusual that he's being cryptic and that he doesn't really let on what he's really thinking. So I don't think I'll be voting Jd-.

I would prefer, though, if he would make his thought process a bit more clear. So, I don't think I'll be voting him today, but I can be reasoned with. That being said, I don't think there's any evidence to suggest that Fuji is evil either. It looks to me like one of those two is gonna be arrested today, and if that's how it's gonna play out, I'll probably vote someone completely different because at this point I believe them both to be innocent.

Indeed, I'm never one to outright share every step to follow how I arrived where I did--sometimes I'm going to be wrong, sometimes I'll be right, sometimes somewhere in-between.

How about this to clear things up, to ensure we don't end up with the Spy/Informants taking over the vote and arresting me assuming Fujiwara is an Informant: Vote for Fujiwara, as will I. If Fujiwara is a civilian, I will publicly contend for my own arrest tomorrow unless another suspect is named. In the meantime, I will also leave behind all of my suspicions and progress thus far for everyone to consider for future phases after it's confirmed I'm a civilian through arrest.

I think it's a fair solution for everyone. Any thoughts?

[seed12]

I don't think we should vote for either of you...

[Iwamoto Yuri]

Well, Jd-, as past GM I've seen how you play as informant and already decided you behave different. As of now I have two people I suspect of being informant, but as of now I'm not yet revealing who as I want to make sure my suspicions are correct by rereading the topic.
However, I do believe Jd- is a valuable ally, so in case he is wrong about Fujiwara I would rather have people vote me instead.

[seed12]

Maybe Togop is an informant because he said that Ansai isn't on his list? He wanted to help the spy narrow down the list

[Fujiwara]

Alright, really briefly: I withdraw my previous suspicions of Jd-. The way he has been attacking me, though misguided, is completely Civilian, since if I'm arrested he's putting his life on the line 100%. I don't want us to lose both me and Jd at the same time, so whatever happens don't vote Jd- tomorrow.

@Jd:
I honestly, honestly didn't know that orders worked that way, and I've read the rules very carefully. I think it's a confusing way to do it. I've never been on the side of the bad guys and I'm not now.

I'm going to vote for Ansai for now. I'm sorry about that, but I don't have a better idea right now.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

Maybe Togop is an informant because he said that Ansai isn't on his list? He wanted to help the spy narrow down the list

Besides that it is a strange action, informants don't have a list. It might have been a way to lure things out for sure.