ESPIONAGE: Round Four (Spy & Informants Win!!)

[Jd-]

As for today, we need a discussion. In the hopes of starting some, I'll get a little radical and announce that Ansai is not on my list. I believe that this won't help the spy too much. The choice also aims to involve inactives (Ansai) more.

Radical, but I like it. He's not on my list either. Can anyone say that Ansai is on their list?

As for the return of the no-kill, I am leaning toward genuine inactivity this time, which limits our suspects considerably. But, it could be a ploy all the same. It's also possible they were simply busy during Prep and couldn't get an Order to their Informants in time. Nonetheless, I have a lead we can try out if Ansai doesn't work out.

[seed12]

Ansai is on my list but it doesn't really prove anything... there aren't any clues to find the spy

[PhantomWriter]

Ansai is on my list but it doesn't really prove anything... there aren't any clues to find the spy

Ansai's also on my list. And the inconsistency, presuming everyone's telling the truth about their lists, means that Ansai's not the detective. Which then narrows down the person to civilian, spy, or informant. That information more helps the spy and informant instead of civilians and detective.

[Jd-]

It is indeed true that the Spy and Informant benefit from us eliminating Detective suspects. However, we should discuss a few possibilities until we arrive at the best one.

We now know that a no-kill on Day 1 is a pretty standard strategy. If so, it could have been anyone. If the Spy is one of the inactive players, though, then we should look at the self-votes vs. that person's activity so far. I'm going to read back through the topic and formulate some thoughts, but I do think at least one of the Informants has hardly said anything.

Did anyone uncover any cues from Day 1 that may have been order responses?

[Jd-]

I think this is a good place to start for discussion.

Stopwatch
miakakiri
PhantomWriter
RoboG55
Ansai
Trickster

Some of them have already mentioned why they didn't vote, but what about the others? I was actually pretty surprised to see Stopwatch not vote, but maybe she felt not voting was fine since a tie was being arranged.

[Togop]

Ansai is on my list but it doesn't really prove anything... there aren't any clues to find the spy

Ansai's also on my list. And the inconsistency, presuming everyone's telling the truth about their lists, means that Ansai's not the detective. Which then narrows down the person to civilian, spy, or informant. That information more helps the spy and informant instead of civilians and detective.

Well, revealing that Ansai is not the detective helps everyone who has him on their list narrow down the detective further. Thus while we certainly don't want to reveal a a bunch of people who are not the detective, I figured one is probably fine.

Anyway, now there's the question of who do we vote for. I'll probably go Ansai ATM, but I really hope for a better candidate.

I am pretty sure that Stopwatch just chose non-voting as her random vote.

[miakakiri]

~_~* I still feel like I'm lost.
I think I gave a reasonable explanation for my failure to vote. I am sorry about that, by the way. ~_~*

I wish I felt like I could actually be of assistance to anything. ~_~* I don't have a good enough feel for the game to have anything useful yet.

[RoboG55]

I think this is a good place to start for discussion.

Stopwatch
miakakiri
PhantomWriter
RoboG55
Ansai
Trickster

Some of them have already mentioned why they didn't vote, but what about the others? I was actually pretty surprised to see Stopwatch not vote, but maybe she felt not voting was fine since a tie was being arranged.

Ah. It was same for Ansai. Well, he wasn't doing research. He was up late doing math. He's lucky he doesn't have to do it for 2 hours like me. :\ I think it just got easier for him.

[Ansai]

When the weekend comes around, I'll finally have more time to be active... But as for right now, I can't really do much here...
So much work to do...

[Iwamoto Yuri]

Ansai's on my list o/

[Jd-]

It would be pretty genius of Togop as the Informant or Spy to go with that list initiative, now that I think about it. Not saying he's either, just a thought.

Yuri seems civilian-like to me, if only due to volunteering as a subject to be voted as one of the two tie targets before. Myself and Conan-chandesune were the other outright volunteers, and for the most part, you would expect those putting themselves on the line for that to be civilians. That's why I'd push myself as someone to not random-vote at all at this point, given that I put myself on the line and could have very easily been arrested haphazardly (as we've just seen is a very real possibility). Due to the risk involved, for now, I say we ditch the tie votes.

Some random thoughts on the state of the game thus far: We can be reasonably certain that both of the Informants have posted at this point, and that at least one of them is pretty active. Ansai, seed12, and PhantomWriter were the quietest during Day 1 and none posted anything as far as I recall. I'm willing to say that the Spy almost definitely was active last phase and either didn't kill on purpose for strategic reasons (to take advantage of self-votes and pin inactive players as potential Spies) or maybe one of their Informants was inactive--thus making it too risky to kill outright. The last possibility is decent, but all they would have to do in that case is kill a very active person instead of risking it on a quiet player. It'd be very improbable that someone like me, Yuri, Stopwatch, Fujiwara, etc. would be that "quiet Informant" given that we made a litany of posts. Of course, it's also possible that their response to the Order was unclear and the Spy, again, just didn't want to risk it.

I'm not too sure who to vote for at this point.

[Fujiwara]

As for today, we need a discussion. In the hopes of starting some, I'll get a little radical and announce that Ansai is not on my list. I believe that this won't help the spy too much. The choice also aims to involve inactives (Ansai) more.

I don’t agree with your choice of action. There are other ways to start a discussion and you’re setting a bad example for other players.

As for the return of the no-kill, I am leaning toward genuine inactivity this time, which limits our suspects considerably. But, it could be a ploy all the same. It's also possible they were simply busy during Prep and couldn't get an Order to their Informants in time. Nonetheless, I have a lead we can try out if Ansai doesn't work out.

Why? Real inactivity isn’t any more likely than a bluff, imo.

It is indeed true that the Spy and Informant benefit from us eliminating Detective suspects. However, we should discuss a few possibilities until we arrive at the best one.

And we can’t discuss possible spy suspects without eliminating detective suspects why, exactly? I don’t follow your logic here ...

I think this is a good place to start for discussion.

Stopwatch
miakakiri
PhantomWriter
RoboG55
Ansai
Trickster

Some of them have already mentioned why they didn't vote, but what about the others? I was actually pretty surprised to see Stopwatch not vote, but maybe she felt not voting was fine since a tie was being arranged.

Miakakiri, PhantomWriter and RoboG55 all spoke up before your post. Stopwatch self-voted, but was really active before that, so I don’t know why you put her on that list. If she were the spy, I’m pretty sure she wouldn’t have forgotten to kill and, given that there was a tie initiative going on, self-voting was in agreement with the plan and really rather safe. Ansai also spoke up after your post, which makes Trickster the only person who hasn’t said anything yet.

So: Trickster! Come join the discussion!

Ansai's also on my list. And the inconsistency, presuming everyone's telling the truth about their lists, means that Ansai's not the detective. Which then narrows down the person to civilian, spy, or informant. That information more helps the spy and informant instead of civilians and detective.

Indeed! I quite agree, which is why I will never mention whether or not someone is on my list, and I hope other people will do the same.

Well, revealing that Ansai is not the detective helps everyone who has him on their list narrow down the detective further. Thus while we certainly don't want to reveal a a bunch of people who are not the detective, I figured one is probably fine.

I really wish people would stop playing bingo with their lists, but I guess I’m asking too much there. This is going to end badly, methinks.

It would be pretty genius of Togop as the Informant or Spy to go with that list initiative, now that I think about it. Not saying he's either, just a thought.

Possible.

Yuri seems civilian-like to me, if only due to volunteering as a subject to be voted as one of the two tie targets before. Myself and Conan-chandesune were the other outright volunteers, and for the most part, you would expect those putting themselves on the line for that to be civilians. That's why I'd push myself as someone to not random-vote at all at this point, given that I put myself on the line and could have very easily been arrested haphazardly (as we've just seen is a very real possibility). Due to the risk involved, for now, I say we ditch the tie votes.

Except if the spy/informant did exactly that to seem Civilian, a possibility I’m quite frankly considering not too unlikely. There’s a risk, yes, but how much easier the game would be after you’ve ‘proven’ yourself to be Civilian.

I actually... don't think it's the best strategy to go for. But, I do think there's one thing we can gain from it. That thing is something I won't mention (should this go through) until the next phase, as I'm not entirely sure who most benefits. It's tangentially related to the conundrum I mentioned earlier during Prep Phase and I'm still a little undecided on how exactly to disseminate that information without giving the Spy an advantage going forward.

I’d still like to know your reasons for not only going with the tie vote, but making sure it happened with volunteers. You didn’t give any reasons yesterday after all.

[Togop]

Yuri seems civilian-like to me, if only due to volunteering as a subject to be voted as one of the two tie targets before. Myself and Conan-chandesune were the other outright volunteers, and for the most part, you would expect those putting themselves on the line for that to be civilians. That's why I'd push myself as someone to not random-vote at all at this point, given that I put myself on the line and could have very easily been arrested haphazardly (as we've just seen is a very real possibility). Due to the risk involved, for now, I say we ditch the tie votes.

Some random thoughts on the state of the game thus far: We can be reasonably certain that both of the Informants have posted at this point, and that at least one of them is pretty active. Ansai, seed12, and PhantomWriter were the quietest during Day 1 and none posted anything as far as I recall. I'm willing to say that the Spy almost definitely was active last phase and either didn't kill on purpose for strategic reasons (to take advantage of self-votes and pin inactive players as potential Spies) or maybe one of their Informants was inactive--thus making it too risky to kill outright. The last possibility is decent, but all they would have to do in that case is kill a very active person instead of risking it on a quiet player. It'd be very improbable that someone like me, Yuri, Stopwatch, Fujiwara, etc. would be that "quiet Informant" given that we made a litany of posts. Of course, it's also possible that their response to the Order was unclear and the Spy, again, just didn't want to risk it.

I'm not too sure who to vote for at this point.

There are some problems with your logic. While it's risky for the spy to volunteer for the tie, an informant could. Thus I wouldn't clear Jd- or Yuri of being informants. Furthermore, especially in Yuri's case, she volunteered after we no longer needed volunteers. So she did it knowing we probably wouldn't use her. As such, it could very well have been an attempt to make oneself look civilian. That said, the point about not random-voting Jd- at this point stands, if only because he's unlikely to be spy (though, as Fujiwara said, it could be a ploy).

As for the thoughts on spy/informant. I've already given up trying to figure out if the no-kill was due to inactivity or strategy. I don't see a way to know, so for now I'm simply ignoring this fact. I'm curious why did you go from probably inactivity to probably intended, though?

[Togop]

Anyway, suspicions raised so far (and the reasons accompanying):
Yuri - Possibly volunteered to seem civillian, knowing we're unlikely to use her nomination
Jd - Possibly volunteered for a tie to seem civillian, taking a risk. And I don't follow his logic at times.
Togop - "It would be pretty genius of Togop as the Informant or Spy to go with that list initiative" Jd-
miaka, Robo, Phantom, Ansai, Trickster - possibly inactivity explains the no-kill

Other information we have:
Ansai - Isn't the detective unless both me and Jd- are on the spy side (as he's not on either of our lists).

In other words, we don't really have anything. I wouldn't vote for Jd- or Yuri solely on the suspicions listed above (or self-vote) as arresting an active player would really hurt with the current level of activity.

[Togop]

Sorry for the triple-post, I just thought of something.

What if people post a "fake investigate" every day. This would allow the detective to chip in with a real investigate if they want without compromising themselves. Now, the civillians would be able to disregard all investigates posted by people not on their lists. The spy and informants wouldn't . As such, the civillians will be getting a lot more usable info from that.

I won't start with that play before consulting you, though, because as good as it sounds there are some risks:
- activity: Ideally, we'd want everyone to post fake results. Nonparticipation could allow the spy to try to infer who is/isn't the detective based on activity. This isn't going to be too easy, though, as the detective can also choose whether to post anything or not. I'll post a better analysis on this later.
- If someone claims the spy came out clean, then the spy could infer that person's not the detective.

So, it's a way to get info, but also risks giving the spy some info. What do you think?